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Last year, immediately after Lotusphere 2008, I wrote a post outlining a number of
predictions for Lotusphere 2009. I then
revisited it shortly before Lotusphere 2009 started. So now it's time to pay a final visit, and see how well my crystal balls were working in early February 2008.
- Attendance will be up significantly - book early kids - my money is on the numbers crashing through the 8000 barrier for the first time in a few years
Okay, that was reckoning without the "global downturn". We'll see ...
(verdict) Wrong. Lotus claims attendance was up on one measure: the number of customer organisations sending at least one person. Good news. But it felt as though actual attendee numbers were way down.
- The Notes/Domino 9.0 feature set will be announced
Hmm. I think I'll stick with this one, because I would like it to be true.
(verdict) Er, wrong again. Totally wrong. And now there's a suggestion that Notes/Domino 9.0 won't even be called Notes/Domino 9.0. The gods are not smiling on me.
- It will be MUCH harder to pick sessions (like it was so easy before, right?), given the incredible number of 2008 announcements that will have become released products by then:
- Quickr 8.1
- Connections 2.0
- Foundations
- Mashups
- Notes/Domino 8.0.1 including Traveler
- Notes/Domino 8.5 including Domino Designer in Eclipse
- "BlueHouse"
Well, BlueHouse is still in beta. But the rest are out there in the wild. And it is very hard to select sessions this year!
(verdict) Definitely right.
- Dan Lyons will say something crap and stupid, again (will he ever grow up?)
Come on Dan, I'm waiting, don't disappoint me.
(verdict) Surprisingly wrong 
- Microsoft will release a set of spoiler announcements, yet again (will they ever grow up?)
Very half-hearted from Murkysoft so far. Do they have something more engaging up their sleeve to hit us with before Monday?
(verdict) No, they didn't. I wonder whether they decided that inauguration was enough to draw attention away. Or whether they just didn't have anything to say.
- The opening general session special guest speaker will be better than 2008 (hardly a challenge) but not as good as Neil Armstrong in 2007
Sticking with this one - it's a safe bet
(verdict) Well, he was okay, but not as good as I expected him to be. Ben Zander made up for it 5000% in the closing session though - if only I'd been able to stay to the end. Damn those pesky airline schedules.
- The purple websphere logo will have disappeared and there'll be a "new" Lotus Portal product (okay, this may be wishful thinking ... 2010?)
I WISH!
(verdict) Good grief, this is almost true! At least, the purple turd-in-a-punchbowl logo has gone and been replaced with a Lotus yellow/orange one. About time too. I suspect that the Websphere name is here to stay though.
- There will be at least one complete surprise new product announcement - as surprising as Connections in 2007 and Foundations in 2008 - and it will be another low-end SME-based play
I'll stick with this one too ... nervously.
(verdict) Reluctantly, I'm calling "wrong" on this one. I would like to think that LotusLive would be it - but it's mainly a branding exercise at this point, and I can't see why any SME would select this over Google or the Redmond people right now. Give it 18 months and we'll see.
- Paul Mooney will purchase unfeasible quantities of sake in Kimono's
(verdict) Thank you Paul, I knew you wouldn't disappoint me. I seem to remember stumping up for a fair few bottles myself as well. And at THOSE prices too. Ouch.
- Wild Bill will have another significant birthday
This is too easy
(verdict) Correct - obviously.
- The Lotus911 crowd will ask a minimum of three questions at the 'Ask the Developers' session
I was cheating on the last few wasn't I ... dead cert.
(verdict) I forgot to count. It was certainly at least two wasn't it? I'll assume "right" on this until somebody corrects me ...
So, there you have it. A mixed bag. The biggest surprise was the Websphere logo turning Lotus coloured, as that was pure wishful thinking a year ago. The biggest disappointment was probably the attendance levels, although there were global (economic) and local (USA politics) factors at play there, so I wouldn't have been making that bullish prediction with hindsight anyway.
